2017 Residential Real Estate Market Forecast

2017 Residential Real Estate Market Forecast

As published in The Registry on November 22, 2016 and the North Bay Business Journal on November 28, 2016

North Bay Residential Real Estate Market is Decelerating and Showing Signs of Fatigue

The residential real estate market in the North Bay counties of Marin, Napa and Sonoma is decelerating and showing signs of fatigue after five consecutive years of growth, according to a recent survey from Terra Firma Global Partners, a residential real estate services firm with nine North Bay offices.

Using the most common metrics to measure the markets, single-family home and condominium sales in the three North Bay counties seem to have plateaued, and the forecast for 2017 is for home and condo sales to remain flat with a chance to actually decline in some micro-markets.

House for sale with sign

During the first nine months of this year, compared with the first nine months of 2015, 15% fewer homes and condos traded ownership in Marin County, 5.3% fewer in Sonoma and 9.6% fewer sales occurred in Napa counties.

Sales velocity is clearly down in all three counties and for a variety of reasons, some of which are true for each county. The common theme relates to supply and demand, with limited supply in high demand markets driving up pricing in all three counties but particularly in Marin and Sonoma County, where the median price of sold homes increased 9% during the first nine months of 2016 compared with the first nine months of 2015. In Napa County, the median home and condo sale price increased 1.75% during the first nine months this year.

The median sale price means that half of all homes sold above the median figure and half of the homes sold below the median figure. See table below for specific pricing in each county.

Lack of inventory is an issue in each county, with only 2.5 months of supply available in Marin (homes and condos listed for sale) as of Sept. 30 this year, 1.8 months of supply in Sonoma and 2.85 months of supply in Napa counties, according to data compiled from BAREIS® (Bay Area Real Estate Information Services) and NorCal MLS®. The data was mined by Terra Firma Global Partners’ Senior Associate Jaime Pera for Marin County, Senior Associate Trish McLean, CRS and Certified Green Real Estate Professional for Sonoma County and Senior Associate Ellen Politz for Napa County.

Photo Of White Puzzle House On Green Grass

The average price per square foot increased nominally in Marin and Sonoma counties for the reporting periods, largely because home prices have been rising since 2011 with the biggest spikes coming in 2014 and 2015. That left little room for big price increases in 2016 – at least in Marin and Sonoma, which is another sign of a decelerating market. In Marin, the price per foot increase was 3% in 2016 and stood at $662 a foot at the end of September this year compared with $642 per foot at the end of September in 2015. The price per foot was 4.9% more in in Sonoma County ($381 vs. $364) yet in Napa County, the price per foot shot up 19% ($483 vs $391) during the first three quarters of this year.

Days on the market (DOM), while an imperfect measurement because DOM is reported differently by all of the sales agents in the industry, is still a good indicator as to which direction the markets are heading. DOM in Marin declined by 9% in the first three quarters of this year and by 1.5% in Sonoma, yet increased by 4% in Napa County. The 9% median price increase in Marin combined with the shortened DOM has taken the Marin County housing market to unprecedented heights and begs the question – how much higher can it go, if at all? The relatively flat DOM in Sonoma County and modest increase in days on the market in Napa County indicates the markets have stabilized there.

As markets go, Marin County typically lags and follows home sales trends in San Francisco, while Sonoma lags and follows Marin County and Napa lags and follows Sonoma County.

Total Homes and Condos Sold 1Q2016 through 3Q2016
Marin: 1,928
Same Period 2015: 2,264
Percentage Change: -15%

Total Homes and Condos Sold 1Q2016 through 3Q2016
Sonoma: 3,953
Same Period 2015: 4,156
Percentage Change: -5.3%

Total Homes and Condos Sold 1Q2016 through 3Q2016
Napa: 1,242
Same Period 2015: 1,123
Percentage Change: -9.6%

Average Price Per Square Foot 1Q2016 through 3Q2016
Marin: $662
Same Period 2015: $642
Percentage Change: 3%

Average Price Per Square Foot 1Q2016 through 3Q2016
Sonoma: $381
Same Period 2015: $364
Percentage Change: 4.9%

Average Price Per Square Foot 1Q2016 through 3Q2016
Napa: $483
Same Period 2015: $391
Percentage Change: 19%

Median Price September 30, 2016 of 2016 compared with September 30, 2015

Marin: $1,014,817 vs. $930,786
Percentage Change: 9%

Sonoma: $545,000 vs. $500,000
Percentage Change: 9.0%

Napa: $629,000 vs. $618,000
Percentage Change: 1.75%

Average Days on Market First 9 Months of 2016 compared with First 9 Months of 2015:

Marin: 49 vs. 54
Percentage Change: -9%

Sonoma: 62 vs. 63
Percentage Change: -1.5%

Napa: 89 vs. 85.5
Percentage Change: 4%

Shifting Markets

“In Sonoma County, we are seeing more price adjustments and more negotiations for repairs occurring. Repairs and repair credits are hard to quantify, but it is an indicator of a softening market, or at least movement toward a more level market. While this is one indicator of a stabilizing market, we are still seeing strong competition among buyers for available homes. There’s an interesting subset of data in the percentage of agents reporting “Multiple Offers” in MLS. This isn’t a required field, so there may be more sales getting multiple offers than are being reported, but we know at least these number of homes have received offers from more than one buyer. In Sonoma County, through Sept 30 this year, 1,438 homes sold with multiple offers, compared to 1,335 homes during the same period of 2015, or a 7% increase,” reported Trish McLean.

Yet asking rates for homes have not lowered on any wide scale in Marin County, Jaime Pera reported. However, Pera wrote that the lower end of the market is shrinking and so is the middle part of the market, while the high end market is growing. Based on homes and condos listed for Blue button with house on computer keyboardsale, as of 9.30 this year there were 163 homes on the market priced below $1 million, or down 16% compared with Sept. 30 of 2015. There were 252 homes for sale priced below $1.5 million – 11% fewer than a year earlier. Yet 32% of Marin homes for sale were priced at $2 million or more at the close of the third quarter this year, or 7% more than the same period a year ago.

 

Regarding inventory, McLean wrote that “we’d have to go back to 2011 to find more than two months of inventory…indicating that (at least for now) under two months of inventory is the new normal.”

Ellen Politz attributes the lack of inventory to broader ownership trends with lower turnover, citing a California Association of REALTORS® report that homeowners are staying in their homes for an average of 10 years instead of a range from five-to-seven years.

Hispanic Couple Viewing Potential New Home“Marriage is down, and the millennials aren’t pursuing the American Dream of getting married, buying homes and having kids the way

previous generations have. Instead, they are looking to experience life and travel. So housing is not turning over at the same rate as the households are not changing as they once did,” Politz wrote.

Mortgage rates are likely to rise, making it harder for first-time buyers and move-up buyers to afford to buy their first homes or to trade up. With real wage increases occurring in the U.S. following regular monthly gains in employment, the Federal Reserve appears poised to increase interest rates by a quarter point when it meets in December, and Fed bankers have publicly stated that another rate increase is likely in the first half of 2017.

The Fear Factor

Both McLean and Pera cited fear as a market driver in written comments that they included with their data findings.

“Another factor affecting inventory is fear… sellers who are concerned that they won’t be able to find a replacement property so they don’t want to sell their home,” wrote McLean.

Similarly, “there are a lot of sellers on the fence about downsizing, not knowing where they are going to go plus as a general rule they have fear about downsizing and making a mistake,” Pera wrote.

Looking Ahead

Higher borrowing costs are nearly a certainty and “could feel like a double whammy,” Politz stated, because borrowing rates actually declined by nearly 50 basis points from the end of the third quarter 2015 to the end of September this year. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States was 3.9% at the end of the third quarter in 2015 and had fallen to 3.45% by Sept. 30, 2016, according to data compiled by Freddie Mac and reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Even so, Politz noted, “assuming that rates go up, we will only be moving from super low to low, historically speaking.”

“The silver lining in the shifting market is that the move-up / move-down market is gaining strength as more and more agents are willing to broker deals between parties involving contingencies for sbuy house Mortgage calculations, calculator with Magnifier Searchingelling or buying property. I just closed two transactions for a client who was doing a move-up purchase. They were concerned about selling their house and ending up homeless. We got their home “ready” to sell…pest inspection, cleaning, professional photography, etc. so that we could take action the moment they found a house they wanted. We also found a house that had been on the market for two weeks (which can seem like an eternity to the seller). That seller was willing to accept our full price offer and give us time to find a buyer for our house, largely because they also needed time to find a house to move to! So both buyer and seller had the same challenge…wanting to move and needing someone who would be understanding. In the end, this “daisy chain” of escrows closed successfully with a minimum of drama. It’s cooperation like that and trust that keeps the market moving,” McLean wrote.

“Over the last five years we have seen the housing market increase at a rate that significantly outpaces income growth. In 2017, with the (forecasted) increasing interest rate environment, simple economics tell us housing prices have to respond by softening to absorb the rate increases. Well priced, updated homes will continue to be highly sought after as buyers generally are willing to pay more for them, rather than fix up a property themselves. Today’s buyers are weary that we have reached new heights in the real estate market and they are watching and waiting to see if things hold or fold,” Politz wrote.Giving house keys

“I’d say that 2017 is a good year to start taking some chips off the table particularly if the goal is to downsize in the next couple of years. There is no point in waiting. I expect next year to be like this year with relatively low levels of inventory. Properties that are priced correctly, are updated, and are in the right neighborhoods will sell quickly with multiple offers. Homes that are overpriced with inflexible sellers will sit and likely end up selling for less than if they had been priced correctly in the first place. I expect prices to continue to rise, but at a slower pace than 2016 as buyers are starting to resist price increases. Downsizers will continue to ponder the question: Where do I move to? When they finally figure this out we will have more inventory. If they wait too long and sell during a period of rising interest rates, slowing sales, and growing inventory they will pay the price for having waited too long to make a decision,” concluded Pera.

We are here to answer your questions about the future of the real estate market.
Email us anytime at info@terrafirmaglobalpartners.com

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Source: Terra Firma

Proud Partner of the Napa Valley Give!Guide

Proud Partner of the Napa Valley Give!Guide

‘Tis the season for giving!

Along with the festive gatherings with family and friends, tree lightings, holiday parties, and gift exchange, this is also the time of year when we take a moment to count our blessings and give back to those who are less fortunate than ourselves.

Since its img_1118inception and for the fourth year in a row, Terra Firma Global Partners is proud to be a Community Partner of the Napa Valley Give!Guide which makes giving easy! In its first three years, the Napa Valley Give!Guide has raised almost $600,000 for non-profits in Napa County. Because of the Napa Valley Give!Guide‘s Community Partners, every single dollar donated through the Napa Valley Give!Guide goes directly to the chosen non-profit.

The Napa Valley Give!Guide has a great, super easy to use website as well as a printed catalog. All 43 non-profits are featured with a description of their services, in categories ranging from animal rescue to senior img_1117care to environmental causes and everything in between. On the website, you can search the non-profit by category or alphabetically. Donate to 1 non-profit or 20 — all in one transaction! The Napa Valley Give!Guide has made giving as easy as ordering on Amazon! We are truly honored to a partner of such a wonderful organization making such a positive impact in our local community.

 

We encourage you to check out the Napa Valley Give!Guide website napavalleygiveguide.org and donate today!
Donations are being accepted NOW through December 31st

 

Top 10 Reasons the Give!Guide is a GREAT way to do good:

  1. Because YOU care.
    You’re inspired to be a part of this community of givers.
  2.  It’s local.
    Each participating nonprofit focuses their work right here in Napa County.
  3. Puts you in the know.
    At a glance, increase your awareness about the missions of 43 fabulous organizations.
  4. img_0563

    The Napa Team representing at the Give!Guide’s Kick Off Celebration

    Giving won’t break the bank.
    Donations begin at $10, but you may give as much as you like and vary amounts to each nonprofit.

  5. Save time.
    Use the catalog and give to one or many groups with a single check. Or donate via NVGiveGuide.org with a credit card: No checks to write, no envelopes to address.
  6. Donations are tax-deductible.
    You get tax receipts from each nonprofit to whom you give.
  7. Real-time ticker brings you right into the action.
    Current donation totals appear on the website.
  8. Powerful tool to help kids learn about generosity and philanthropy.
  9. Big Give Days.
    Each Saturday, five donors, no matter how much or to whom they give, are drawn at random to receive incentive gifts worth $100 or more.
  10. You make a choice. You make a difference. Give!Guide makes it easy.
Source: https://www.napavalleygiveguide.org/how-it-works/

 

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Source: Terra Firma

Visit us in Novato!

Visit us in Novato!

Novato, CA, November 10, 2016 – Terra Firma Global Partners co-founders Bill Facendini and Heidi Rickerd-Rizzo announced that the firm has expanded its Marin County presence by opening its first permanent office in downtown Novato and hiring five new associates in recent months.

The new office is located at 999 Grant Avenue, Suite 103, in Novato. We have leased approximately 740 square feet on the first floor from building owner Umpqua Bank, an Oregon state-charted bank. The two-story office building is a total of approximately 20,500 square feet.

Marin County is very familiar to our co-founder, Heidi Rickerd-Rizzo. For more than 20 years she owned Bayside Management, one of Marin’s leading property management and investment brokerage services firms.

“Bill and I are absolutely thrilled to open a Marin County office in such an iconic Novato location and gorgeous building. We are excited about the talented and enthusiastic team of professionals that have recently joined the team from various other local brokerages to represent our firm throughout the communities and neighborhoods of one the best places to live in the U.S.,” said Heidi Rickerd-Rizzo.

The Marin office is our 9th location in the North Bay. We started operations in Marin County with a temporary office in San Rafael in 2014 when Jaime Pera joined the firm. Our Sebastopol-based residential brokerage services company has six offices in Sonoma County and two in Napa County. The business has been growing from its inception in the second half of 2010. That first year, we closed 19 transactions for a total sales volume of $19 million. In 2015, we closed 363 transactions for a total sales volume of $239 million. Our company now has over 55 sales associates, and as an “invitation only” firm, continues to look for like-minded professionals in key market areas with which to grow the company.

 

Get to Know Novato…

Love to get outdoors? With over 3,600 acres on open space, more than anywhere else in Marin County, Novato is the perfect destination for outdoor enthusiasts. Biking and hiking trails will take you through marshlands and woodlands alike, through open space and coastal hills, and up Mt. B_dsc5309mlsurdell with views of Stafford Lake. Maybe bird watching is more your thing? With 500 acres of wetlands, Rush Creek Preserve is where you will find up to 196 species of birds as well as wildlife such as coyotes, mule deer, fox, bobcat and more.

One of the more unique outdoor activities Novato offers is mushroom foraging. The rainy winter months in the coastal woodlands create the perfect environment for wild mushroom growth. A little leery about picking the “right” mushrooms? San Francisco-based forageSF offers guided expeditions in West Marin and along the Sonoma Coast, the perfect way to safely explore wild mushrooms.golf-novato

Are you a golfer or equestrian? Novato is home to two 18 hole public courses. Indian Valley Golf Club offers a challenging course which overlooks nearby Stafford Lake. Bay Club StoneTree Golf Club features a Craftsman-style clubhouse with views of Mount Burdell and the surrounding wetlands. Looking to enjoy Novato’s scenic beauty from horseback? Two equestrian facilities offer riding lessons, boarding and training services, camps, and riding parties for children and adults alike.

Novatoold-town-novato also offers the charm of boutique shopping in historic Old Town as well as the convenience of bigger retail stores like Pier 1, Old Navy, and Marshalls. If you are a “foodie” you will appreciate the culinary scene with food and farm tours — exploring local wine, artisan cheese, shuck-you-own oysters and more. If you are an avid museum go-er you won’t be disappointed. Novato is home to the Marin Museum of Modern Art, Hamilton Field History Museum, Space Station Museum, Novato History Museum, Marin Museum of the American Indian, and the Olompali State Historic Park.

Lastly, if you are looking for fun for the whole family, Novato has two great parks for families. Pioneer Park offers nine acres of family fun including an updated playground/structure, BBQ/picnic tables, walking paths, and even movie nights. Miwok Park is also very popular and offers horseshoe, bocce, hiking, as well as a playgroud/structure and BBQ/picnic tables.

Source: http://visitnovato.com/

If you are looking for more ideas and suggestions for what to do in Novato, just stop by! We look forward to seeing you!

 

 

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Source: Terra Firma

Do Elections Shape Housing?

Do Elections Shape Housing?

We are exactly one week from the much anticipated election day, a milestone many Americans are looking forward to. For one reason, some buyers, sellers, and even real estate agents believe an election year plays a part in the housing market. A recent Press Democrat article reads, “Sonoma County’s housing market sees third straight drop in new listings.” The article goes on to speculate why that might be the case, this being an election year included among the reasons, “Sellers this year also seem affected by doubts on such matters as the outcome of the U.S. presidential election…”

So is there any truth to the general consensus that an election year affects housing?

In a recent C.A.R. analysis of home sales dating back to 1990, C.A.R. found that the average change in home sales during an election year does not follow a particular pattern. Notably, sales growth is rarely negative during an election year, and there is no evidence of a systematic negative impact on homes sales or prices stemming from election season. In fact, C.A.R. found that growth in home sales at the end of an election year actually outperforms non-election years by 7.1 percentage points.

On a monthly basis since 1990, California home sales contracted by roughly 2 percent during the last four months of the year. However, during the last 5 election cycles, sales in the final months of the year picked up, rising by 5.3 percent on average compared with 1.8 percent during non-election years.

Source: How Elections Shape Housing, California Real Estate August 2016

how elections shape housing

 

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Source: Terra Firma